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So I would still bet on Jumaane, but I would keep an eye on Ulrich.

Lupe Todd-Medina: The biggest factor is going to be voter turnout – and who turns out.

But if I had to guess, I would have to say Jumaane Williams.

He has enormous name recognition from the campaign for lieutenant governor last year, when he won in Brooklyn and Manhattan.

They took out six members of the IDC, beat or almost beat incumbent congressional members, and took out numerous incumbent legislators.

Whoever wins this vote, plus turns out their base, wins the special election. Voters under 50 will be a larger share of the turnout than ever before and the only ones paying attention.

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